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How to Improve Your Chances to Win a Super Bowl? Win the Year Before.

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Super Bowl XLIX:  Before this NFL season media outlets babbled about how difficult it is to win the Super Bowl two years in a row, including Forbes (“Why the Seahawks Will Probably Not Repeat,” Sept. 4, 2014) and the Seattle Times (“The Rarity of a Super Bowl Repeat,” August 27, 2014).  Enough. Do you improve your chances by not winning the Super Bowl the previous year? Of course not. Not only do these bozos have little comprehension of statistics, but they’re just plain wrong. Here’s why.

If you win the Super Bowl, you’re already a good team:  Super Bowl winners have a better than a 1 in 32 chance that a random team would have in a 32 team league.  Ya think the Jaguars are thinking, “We won’t win the Super Bowl this year, but at least our chances improve for next year!” There have been 48 Super Bowls until now, considering the first champ couldn’t repeat, 47 chances for a repeat. Has that happened? Eight returned, and seven have won. That gives Super Bowl winners a 7 in 47 chance, or to round off, a 1 in 7 chance of repeating.

Winning is not a curse:  Here are the seven teams that repeated:  Green Bay 1968, Miami 1974, Pittsburgh 1976, Pittsburgh 1980, San Francisco 1990, Dallas 1994, New England 2005. Win the Super Bowl in any given year, and your odds increase dramatically to win the next.

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Written by Caleb Powell

January 19, 2015 at 4:12 pm

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